Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 19,787
2 New Jersey 18,615
3 Massachusetts 15,111
4 Rhode Island 14,873
5 District of Columbia 13,513
6 Connecticut 12,438
7 Illinois 10,329
8 Delaware 10,326
9 Maryland 9,943
10 Louisiana 9,495
11 Nebraska 8,284
12 Iowa 7,205
13 Michigan 6,546
14 Pennsylvania 6,359
15 South Dakota 6,334
16 Mississippi 6,210
17 Virginia 6,112
18 Indiana 5,837
19 Minnesota 5,124
20 Colorado 4,946
21 Georgia 4,847
22 Alabama 4,484
23 New Mexico 4,411
24 Tennessee 4,155
25 Arizona 4,118
26 Utah 4,049
27 North Dakota 3,863
28 New Hampshire 3,808
29 Kansas 3,752
30 Wisconsin 3,739
31 North Carolina 3,652
32 California 3,546
33 Arkansas 3,435
34 Washington 3,406
35 Ohio 3,385
36 Nevada 3,316
37 Florida 3,136
38 South Carolina 3,060
39 Texas 2,820
40 Kentucky 2,692
41 Missouri 2,551
42 Maine 1,961
43 Oklahoma 1,890
44 Idaho 1,825
45 Vermont 1,754
46 Wyoming 1,693
47 Puerto Rico 1,668
48 West Virginia 1,223
49 Oregon 1,208
50 Alaska 877
51 Montana 524
52 Hawaii 475

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 139
2 Mississippi 135
3 Arkansas 104
4 Alabama 101
5 Iowa 99
6 Rhode Island 99
7 District of Columbia 96
8 South Carolina 95
9 Utah 93
10 Louisiana 87
11 Maryland 83
12 North Carolina 83
13 Tennessee 76
14 Illinois 74
15 California 68
16 Nebraska 67
17 Texas 66
18 Georgia 65
19 South Dakota 62
20 Minnesota 59
21 Nevada 58
22 Virginia 58
23 Florida 53
24 New Mexico 49
25 Indiana 47
26 Kentucky 47
27 Wisconsin 47
28 New Jersey 44
29 Kansas 43
30 Delaware 39
31 Washington 38
32 Missouri 36
33 Pennsylvania 36
34 Connecticut 35
35 New York 35
36 Puerto Rico 35
37 Massachusetts 34
38 North Dakota 34
39 New Hampshire 33
40 Ohio 31
41 Colorado 28
42 Oklahoma 27
43 Michigan 25
44 Alaska 24
45 Oregon 22
46 Idaho 20
47 Wyoming 19
48 Vermont 17
49 Maine 16
50 West Virginia 9
51 Montana 4
52 Hawaii 2

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,561
2 New Jersey 1,393
3 Connecticut 1,155
4 Massachusetts 1,081
5 Rhode Island 766
6 District of Columbia 707
7 Louisiana 638
8 Michigan 596
9 Illinois 497
10 Pennsylvania 479
11 Maryland 470
12 Delaware 424
13 Indiana 349
14 Mississippi 291
15 Colorado 273
16 Minnesota 224
17 New Hampshire 221
18 Georgia 215
19 Ohio 210
20 Iowa 202
21 New Mexico 195
22 Virginia 177
23 Washington 155
24 Alabama 151
25 Arizona 151
26 Nevada 145
27 Missouri 140
28 Florida 130
29 California 123
30 Wisconsin 115
31 Kentucky 111
32 South Carolina 111
33 Nebraska 108
34 North Carolina 104
35 North Dakota 99
36 Oklahoma 89
37 Vermont 88
38 Kansas 82
39 South Dakota 77
40 Maine 74
41 Texas 66
42 Tennessee 63
43 Arkansas 54
44 Idaho 47
45 West Virginia 47
46 Puerto Rico 44
47 Oregon 40
48 Utah 39
49 Wyoming 31
50 Montana 16
51 Alaska 12
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 12
2 Illinois 9
3 New Jersey 7
4 Massachusetts 6
5 Delaware 5
6 Maryland 5
7 Mississippi 5
8 Connecticut 4
9 District of Columbia 4
10 Georgia 4
11 Minnesota 4
12 Alabama 3
13 Iowa 3
14 New Hampshire 3
15 New York 3
16 Pennsylvania 3
17 Arizona 2
18 Colorado 2
19 Indiana 2
20 Louisiana 2
21 Michigan 2
22 Missouri 2
23 Nebraska 2
24 New Mexico 2
25 North Carolina 2
26 Ohio 2
27 Arkansas 1
28 California 1
29 Florida 1
30 Kentucky 1
31 Nevada 1
32 South Carolina 1
33 South Dakota 1
34 Tennessee 1
35 Virginia 1
36 Wisconsin 1
37 Alaska 0
38 Hawaii 0
39 Idaho 0
40 Kansas 0
41 Maine 0
42 Montana 0
43 North Dakota 0
44 Oklahoma 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 Texas 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,804 1 99
Lake Tennessee 101,482 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 85,938 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 75,630 4 99
Nobles Minnesota 73,929 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 9,466 244 92
Richland South Carolina 4,661 627 80
Pierce Washington 2,612 1079 65
Orange California 2,516 1126 64
York South Carolina 1,908 1388 55

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,429 1 99
Terrell Georgia 3,048 2 99
Early Georgia 3,042 3 99
Randolph Georgia 2,951 4 99
Northampton Virginia 2,306 5 99
Richland South Carolina 168 646 79
Davidson Tennessee 115 813 74
Pierce Washington 96 912 70
Orange California 62 1153 63
York South Carolina 36 1441 54

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons